Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
In a particularly balanced group where Italy and Belgium are contending with the clear favourite, France, and with Israel as the underdog, the head-to-head clash between these two sides holds significant implications. Bookmakers have earmarked Italy as the potential winners for the match in Rome, as the team has not yet dropped points in the Nations League campaign.
Italy
After a disappointing Euro 2024, where the Italian national team was eliminated in the Round of 16 against Switzerland (0:2), the coaching staff decided to revamp the formation. Against France (3:1), they overloaded the midfield, with a quartet of midfielders complementing each other skillfully—this led to a substantial creative advantage (2.12 xG vs 0.79 xG). Of course, both against the French and Israelis, Italy's players made defensive errors due to the advanced positions of the full-backs, but Italy are now prioritising their attack.
Belgium
Belgium head into the upcoming game without Thibaut Courtois, Kevin De Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku—the first two are injured, while Napoli's new signing has requested not to be called up. These absences may actually benefit Domenico Tedesco, as the former Spartak Moscow and RB Leipzig manager is retooling the team with an emphasis on rapid transitions to attack. They confidently overcame Israel (3:1 with 3.13 xG and 26 shots) but struggled to compete with the more experienced France (0:2).
Italy vs Belgium Prediction
In 2021, Italy defeated Belgium twice (both 2:1), although both sides had plenty of chances. A repeat of history is plausible since neither coach is likely to concede the initiative.
