Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
The outcome of the main match in the sixth round of the Nations League between Italy and France will be largely symbolic. Both top teams have already secured their spots in the playoffs, so it's unlikely that either side will exert themselves fully in Milan—coaches will aim to keep their players in shape before they return to their clubs.
Italy
In this Nations League campaign, Italy have completely redeemed themselves after their disappointing Euro 2024 performance. Over five matches, they have failed to win only their home clash with Belgium (2:2), but they deservedly claimed three points in Brussels on Thursday (1:0), with an xG of 2.48-0.52. It's likely that over the weekend, Italy will rotate their squad, giving important minutes to players like Guglielmo Vicario, Moise Kean, Destiny Udogie, and Giacomo Raspadori.
France
France shifted to energy-saving mode as early as the fifth round, drawing with Israel (0:0), an outcome that would not have caused much disappointment. Without Kylian Mbappé, France's attack appears less threatening: they couldn't convert any chances against the group's outsider, despite creating 2.22 xG and taking 24 shots. In the final group stage game, Didier Deschamps cannot field Eduardo Camavinga due to yellow card accumulation, and replacement options like Adrien Rabiot or Manu Koné will offer less attacking threat.
Italy vs France Prediction
In September, Italy managed to overcome France 3:1, utilising their advantage in quick breaks. Both Roberto Mancini and Didier Deschamps will avoid risking their players' health, especially since all tournament objectives have been met. We can expect a friendly-style match with few dangerous chances.
