Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
Both Italy and Germany enjoyed strong performances in the autumn international window, and their upcoming tactical battle between Luciano Spalletti and Julian Nagelsmann will largely revolve around possession control. With midfield quality on both sides, expect an entertaining contest in Milan.
Italy
In the “Group of Death” alongside France, Belgium, and Israel, Italy topped the group until the final matchday. Even in their 1:3 defeat to France, they played more progressively in attack (0.66–0.39 in xG). Luciano Spalletti has been refining a 3-5-1-1 system, with Nicolò Barella operating as the key playmaker. However, Italy will miss Inter Mialn’s Federico Dimarco, ruled out due to a thigh injury. His replacement, Destiny Udogie, could struggle, offering Germany opportunities down his flank.
Germany
Germany remained unbeaten in the Nations League group stage, dominating with three wins—including 7:0 and 2:1 victories over Bosnia & Herzegovina and a 1:0 triumph against the Netherlands. With Florian Wirtz out injured, Jamal Musiala will take centre stage, bringing his 11-goal, 2-assist Bundesliga form into this clash. While Germany still have defensive vulnerabilities, their attack, led by Tim Kleindienst (two goals in the Nations League), remains dangerous.
Italy vs Germany Prediction
The last two encounters between Italy and Germany in 2022’s Nations League saw plenty of goals (1:1 and 5:2). Given both teams’ attacking strengths and tendency to play expansive football, we should see another high-scoring match with both teams finding the net.
