Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
This second Madrid semi-final feels like it could be the de facto final. Both Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti have played some of their best tennis over the past week, and with confidence running high, neither will be keen to blink first.
Jack Draper
Draper has enjoyed a relatively smooth ride to the last four. The only top-15 opponent he’s faced was Tommy Paul, whom he brushed aside with ease (6:2, 6:2). A potentially tricky clash with Matteo Berrettini never materialised after the Italian retired post-tiebreak in the first set. Against Matteo Arnaldi, Draper’s first serve was the difference-maker once again (67% success rate), while the unforced error tally favoured the Brit (15-25). However, today’s test promises a significant step up.
Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti’s clay-court credentials have long been respected, and his run to the Monte Carlo final (where he took a set off Carlos Alcaraz) confirmed his upward trajectory. In Madrid, the Italian has looked supremely confident. He’s not dropped a set en route, easing past Tomás Etcheverry, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alex de Minaur — all serious players on this surface. His quarter-final against Gabriel Diallo (6:4, 6:3) was professional and composed, backed by four aces and clinical baseline play.
Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
While Draper’s power game and serve make him a genuine threat on any surface, Musetti’s form and variety — especially on clay — suggest a far closer encounter than the odds imply. Instead of backing a winner in what's shaping up to be a high-octane clash, the better value lies in expecting a long battle.
