Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Madrid Masters match.
Jack Draper and Tommy Paul met four times last season, and now face each other again for the first time this year. Notably, this will be their first encounter on clay.
Jack Draper
They split their head-to-head meetings in 2024, with Jack Draper holding a slender overall advantage at 3-2, largely due to his straight-sets win in Adelaide during the 2023 season (6:4, 6:4). In Madrid last year, the Briton was eliminated in the second round, but this time he has already reached the fourth. He comes into this match as the favourite, with his ATP ranking of 6th, compared to Tommy Paul's 12th, and the head-to-head record supporting that status. In the previous round, Draper progressed after Matteo Berrettini was forced to retire. Jack Draper claimed a tight opening set in a tiebreak, and after nearly an hour of play, the Italian was unable to continue.
Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul, meanwhile, needed three sets and 1 hour 44 minutes to get past Karen Khachanov (6:3, 3:6, 6:2), marking his second long match of the tournament. In the second round, he came through two tiebreaks and spent 2 hours 5 minutes beating world No. 65 João Fonseca, a rising star often likened to Gustavo Kuerten.
Jack Draper vs Tommy Paul Prediction
These extended matches may take a toll on Tommy Paul’s physical condition, and we expect him to struggle in the latter stages against the relentless Jack Draper. Therefore, we back a small handicap in favour of the Briton.
