Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Barcelona match.
Jacob Fearnley earned a place in the main draw as a lucky loser and then advanced past injured Pablo Carballés Baena. However, his next opponent is Alex de Minaur, currently a top-10 ATP player, who is using this tournament as preparation for the main stretch of the European clay-court season.
Jacob Fearnley
This marks Fearnley’s debut on clay at senior level, and reaching the second round already represents his best result to date. In the qualifiers, he defeated Leo Borg (7:5, 7:6), but then lost to Daniel Galan, ranked 117th in the ATP rankings (5:7, 4:6). Granted a spot in the main draw as a lucky loser, he then beat Pablo Carballés Baena (6:1, 7:5). However, his overall performance was unconvincing: he averaged 40 unforced errors per match and landed just 56% of his first serves. Against top-20 opponents, his record stands at one win and five losses.
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur has already adjusted well to clay this season, winning four of his five matches, three of them in straight sets. At the recent Monte Carlo event, he defeated three top-20 players, including a commanding win over Grigor Dimitrov (6:0, 6:0), before eventually losing to runner-up Matteo Musetti (6:1, 4:6, 6:7). In Barcelona, de Minaur beat Tomás Etcheverry (6:4, 6:4), posting excellent statistics on his first serve — 77% in and 83% of points won behind it.
Jacob Fearnley vs Alex de Minaur Prediction
There is a clear disparity in level between the two players. Alex de Minaur is playing at a much higher standard, is already comfortable on clay, and is unlikely to face any real resistance from a player making his debut at this level. Jacob Fearnley tends to struggle under pressure and is unlikely to trouble the Australian, even in short bursts. A straightforward victory for Alex de Minaur is the most probable outcome.
