Adam Williams presents his prediction for the UFC Fight Night 255 fight.
Carlos Ulberg
Carlos Ulberg will look to impose his trademark striking rhythm early, relying on a fluid mix of light jabs and heavy overhands, while adding in a clean hook when circling off angles. In the second round, Ulberg is likely to reduce the tempo, settling into mid-range boxing exchanges where he can recover energy and fend off takedown attempts. He’ll try to neutralise grappling sequences near the cage and, if needed, look for a body-lock to shift the position himself. In the final stretch, Ulberg will likely start launching high kicks and unloading dangerous hooks, willing to absorb a few shots from Błachowicz in the belief that the Pole’s power will fade by round three. The New Zealander’s speed and physicality could prove decisive, especially against an ageing opponent.
Jan Błachowicz
Jan Błachowicz will stay long at range, flicking out a precise jab and cross to slow the pace and keep Ulberg off-balance. If forced into wild exchanges, the Pole will back off and counter with short, compact combinations to the head. His best chances lie in slowing Ulberg with leg kicks and waiting for an opening to launch a powerful takedown. On the mat, Błachowicz will look to work from side control with occasional ground-and-pound, though he’ll likely avoid drawn-out scrambles.
Betting Odds
Bookmakers favour Ulberg significantly, with odds of 1/3 for the Kiwi’s win. Błachowicz, who hasn’t fought in a year and a half and is now 42, is a 9/4 underdog. There’s concern among analysts that he’ll struggle to match the intensity and tempo of his younger opponent. Even if technically sound, Jan may not be able to keep up physically.
Jan Błachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg Prediction
Ulberg’s finishing ability, combined with Jan’s layoff and fading durability, suggests this bout won’t need the judges. If Błachowicz is unable to control the fight with grappling, Ulberg will likely overwhelm him by the later rounds. The fight might stretch if Jan slows the pace with wrestling, but it’s hard to see it going the distance.
