Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the US Open match.
Jannik Sinner is defending the title in New York, yet the meeting with Denis Shapovalov brought his first genuine resistance. The Italian needed four sets, and his serve and concentration did not always stand up to scrutiny. He now faces Alexander Bublik, a big-serving, unorthodox player who can knock top players out of their stride.
Jannik Sinner
Sinner leads the head-to-head (4-2), including a straight-sets win at Roland Garros in their most recent encounter. However, the hard-court statistics suggest there have not been many straightforward matches for him: six of his ten outings at Grand Slams in 2025 went to tie-breaks or saw the sets split. In New York, in the third round against Denis Shapovalov, Jannik dropped a set and produced an underwhelming first-serve performance: 59% first-serve percentage and only two aces.
Alexander Bublik
Bublik has improved his results against top-10 opposition this season, as he was well beaten in only two of seven such matches. At the US Open he has already reaffirmed the reliability of his serve: against Tommy Paul he contested three tie-breaks and saved all six break points faced. Every opponent Alexander has met at this tournament has been ranked inside the top 100 (Tristan Schoolkate, Marin Čilić, Tommy Paul), and he defeated each by a margin of at least seven games.
Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
Sinner’s form and class make him the favourite, but Bublik, at peak focus, should cover the games handicap and make every set competitive. We expect a long match, and Jannik may again have to work at full stretch to break the opponent’s resistance.
