Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the US Open match.
The reigning US Open champion Jannik Sinner will face Denis Shapovalov on 30 August 2025. For the Italian, this is another step in his title defence; for the Canadian, it is a chance to make a statement at a Grand Slam for the first time in a while.
Jannik Sinner
Jannik Sinner arrives in outstanding form. He has won all eight opening-round matches at Grand Slams in 2025, dropping only one set. In New York he eased past Vít Kopřiva and Alexei Popyrin, conceding only 11 games combined. On average he won 79% of points behind his first serve and struck 13 aces. On hard courts at the Slams, Jannik has won his last 23 matches against top-50 opponents, a 100% record.
Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov is some way short of his best and has rarely prospered against top-five opponents. At Grand Slams his record against the elite is bleak: one win and five defeats. At the US Open he got past Márton Fucsovics and Valentin Royer, but he racked up 20 double faults and 78 unforced errors across those matches. This season Denis owns 13 wins from 21 matches on hard courts and won the title in Los Cabos; however, at seven of his nine tournaments he did not get past the second round.
Jannik Sinner vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction
Jannik Sinner is dominating in New York. Denis Shapovalov did beat the Italian at the 2021 Australian Open in five sets, but they are operating at very different levels now. Jannik Sinner should cover the -7.5 game handicap.
