Simon Dalton sets out his prediction for the ATP Beijing match.
The start in Beijing will be the first match for Jannik Sinner after a disappointing US Open final, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. For Marin Cilic this match is a chance to prove that he can still compete with the elite despite age‑related issues, but the level of opposition and the statistics do not work in his favour.
Jannik Sinner
Sinner has won 18 of 20 matches on hard courts this season, and both defeats have come against world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz. On this surface Jannik has a modest first‑serve percentage (58%), but he wins 82% of points behind the first serve. The Italian has also excelled against older opponents: 10 wins from 10 matches against 30+ opponents on hard courts over the past year, while dropping only one set.
Marin Cilic
Cilic is past his best and he is not in great condition. Throughout his career he has struggled against top‑five opponents, with an 81% loss rate (44 defeats in 54 matches) on hard courts against that level of player. Marin is on a five‑match losing streak, and in 2025 he has played only six matches on hard courts, winning just two.
Jannik Sinner vs Marin Cilic Prediction
Given Jannik Sinner’s style and Marin Cilic’s weak statistical profile, we expect a comfortable win. The Italian should make a statement in his first match after the US Open. The gulf in pace, freshness and overall level between the two players is significant.
