Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Barcelona match.
Andrey Rublev is making his return to the court after a disappointing outing in Monte Carlo. His opponent, Jesper de Jong, has progressed through the qualifiers and appears to be in solid match condition. The Dutch player has already adjusted well to clay courts, having reached the finals of Challenger tournaments in Murcia and Girona in 2025.
Jesper de Jong
Jesper de Jong heads into this match in excellent form. During the qualifying rounds, he was particularly effective on his first serve, winning an average of 73% of points. In his match against Arthur Rinderknech, the Dutchman delivered seven aces and held serve throughout the contest (6:3, 7:5). This marks his fifth clay-court tournament of the season, giving him a clear preparation advantage over Andrey Rublev, who has played just two matches on clay in 2025.
Andrey Rublev
In his most recent outing, Andrey Rublev fell in straight sets to Artur Fils (2:6, 3:6). He managed only two aces compared to three double faults, won 59% of points on his first serve, and just 29% on his second. Even in an earlier Monte Carlo match against Gaël Monfils (6:4, 7:6), he displayed notable vulnerabilities, landing only 55% of first serves. Earlier in the season, Andrey Rublev was eliminated in the early rounds of several tournaments — suffering defeats to Gijs Brouwer in Dubai, Matteo Arnaldi in Indian Wells, and Zizou Bergs in Miami.
Jesper de Jong vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Jesper de Jong is well-adjusted to clay, in peak physical shape, and has posted strong statistics on both serve and return. In contrast, Andrey Rublev is struggling for form and has had minimal match practice on clay this season — winning fewer than 30% of points on his second serve in his last appearance. This looks set to be a challenging encounter for the player, which is why support lies with a handicap in favour of Jesper de Jong.
