Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Strasbourg match.
This Strasbourg clash serves as Jessica Pegula’s final tune-up before Roland Garros, but her recent form on European clay raises significant concerns. The American has managed just three wins in her last six matches on the surface and has struggled to find rhythm, consistency, and intensity in the lead-up. With the Grand Slam looming, there’s a risk she may prioritise preparation over results — potentially leaving the door open for an upset.
Jessica Pegula
Since claiming the title in Charleston back in early April, Pegula has noticeably cooled off. Her performances on clay in Europe have been well below par — including lopsided defeats to Ekaterina Alexandrova (0:6, 4:6), Moyuka Uchijima (3:6, 2:6), and Elise Mertens (5:7, 1:6). A common thread in these losses is the lack of competitiveness: all six of her recent clay matches in Europe have wrapped up in under 20 games.
Anna Kalinskaya
Kalinskaya continues to make a name for herself as a tricky opponent for the tour’s elite. Since the start of 2024, she’s posted an 8-5 record against top-10 players, and she’s covered the +4.5 game handicap in six of her last seven such matches. In Strasbourg’s first round, the Russian edged past Caroline Dolehide in three sets (6:2, 4:6, 6:3), winning 67% of points behind her first serve — a strong stat on clay. Crucially, Kalinskaya has faced Pegula three times before, taking at least a set in each encounter and never losing by more than five games.
Jessica Pegula vs Anna Kalinskaya Prediction
Pegula’s poor form on clay, combined with the pre-Slam context and Kalinskaya’s growing reputation for pushing top-tier players, tilts the value toward the underdog. Expect Kalinskaya to challenge from the start and, at minimum, take a set off the American.
