Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Roland Garros match.
Karen Khachanov has a history of elevating his performance at Roland Garros, having made the quarter-finals twice (in 2019 and 2023). Once again, the Russian looks well-positioned to make a deep run in Paris. In contrast, Tommy Paul has had to battle through two physically taxing matches and came close to an early elimination against world No. 126 Marton Fucsovics. Given his current form, he may find it difficult to maintain his level.
Karen Khachanov
While Karen Khachanov has not stood out in recent tournaments, Roland Garros consistently brings the best out of him. He has advanced to at least the fourth round in six of the last eight editions. This year, he began confidently with a straight-sets win over world No. 80 Aleksandar Vukic (6:4, 6:4, 6:4), followed by a hard-fought five-set victory against clay-court specialist Sebastian Ofner. So far in 2025, the Russian has claimed 9 wins from 14 clay matches, dropping a set only once – against Holger Rune in Barcelona.
Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul has also delivered solid results on clay, with 10 wins from 13 outings. During this period, the American defeated four top-30 opponents in six attempts. However, he has only managed to win in straight sets on two occasions. At Roland Garros, he benefited from a favourable draw, facing world No. 112 Harold Mayot and No. 126 Marton Fucsovics. Both matches, however, proved demanding. Paul dropped the opening set before beating Harold Mayot in four (6:7, 6:2, 6:3, 6:1), and had to rally from two sets down to overcome Marton Fucsovics in five (4:6, 2:6, 6:3, 7:5, 6:4). Over these two encounters, Paul averaged a 66% first-serve rate but committed 84 unforced errors.
Karen Khachanov vs Tommy Paul Prediction
Given Tommy Paul's fatigue, Karen Khachanov may hold a slight advantage. Still, the American leads their head-to-head record, having defeated Karen Khachanov twice in straight sets. This match is likely to be competitive and should extend to at least four sets.
