Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the La Liga match.
Recently promoted Leganés continue to take points off top clubs, while Rayo Vallecano have suffered just one defeat in their five January fixtures. This match is unlikely to be a high-scoring, open affair, as both sides are focused on securing results rather than playing expansive football.
Leganés
A goalless draw against Athletic Bilbao extended Leganés’ unbeaten start to 2025, following their Copa del Rey victories over Cartagena (2:1) and Almería (3:2). In their last home match, the La Liga newcomers pulled off a 1:0 win over Atlético Madrid, despite managing just 0.41 xG and three shots on target, with the only goal coming from free kicks and corners. Despite struggling with finishing, Leganés have created 4.27 xG in their last three league matches, converting just two goals—a poor conversion rate, yet their defensive solidity continues to improve their league position.
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano remain one of La Liga’s weakest attacking teams, producing just 27.14 xG in 21 matches—ranking seventh from the bottom. Their 2:1 win over Girona came thanks to quick counterattacks, though their original tactical setup didn’t work. Both goals came from substitutes Randy Nteka and Álvaro García. Sitting just one point away from the European places, Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in five straight La Liga matches and will be keen to extend this run.
Leganés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Their September meeting ended in a cautious 1:1 draw, and another tight, low-scoring match is expected. Both teams are pragmatic, focusing on defensive structure over attacking flair.
