Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Europa Conference League match.
One of the frontrunners in the new Conference League season, Legia Warsaw, will host Dinamo Minsk, who have yet to earn a point in European competition. The Polish side will likely need to break through a tight defence from the outset, with the Belarusian side ready to strike on the counter.
Legia Warsaw
A victory over Real Betis (1:0) in the opening round boosted Legia Warsaw’s confidence, although they managed just three shots on target from an xG of 1.38. Bačka Topola (3:0) posed less of a threat, but even then, the Warsaw team were not always proactive going forward: despite having more shots (7-2), they controlled possession far less (28% to 72%). Now, Legia Warsaw will have to cope without their midfield leader, Bartosz Kapustka, who is suspended due to yellow card accumulation, impacting their attacking capabilities.
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk will also miss one of their key attacking players for the match in Warsaw: Trofim Melnychenko received a red card against HJK Helsinki (0:1) after handling the ball to prevent a goal. That match highlighted one of their weaknesses – difficulty converting chances on the international stage (1.49 xG with only three shots on target). Including the final qualifying round matches against Anderlecht (0:2 on aggregate), Dinamo Minsk have scored only once in their last four European contests.
Legia Warsaw vs Dinamo Minsk Prediction
Since mid-October, Dinamo Minsk have been on a run of four matches resulting in a total under 2.5. In the game against Legia Warsaw, the Belarusians might create opportunities but will remain focused on defence, so we'll go for the total under.
