Adam Williams presents his prediction for the Investec Champions Cup match.
There is a clear favourite in this match-up: Leinster are currently among the leading clubs in Europe. However, how the game will unfold remains uncertain. These two sides have not met in over a decade.
Leinster
This season has proven even more successful for Leinster than the last. In the 2023/24 campaign, the squad reached the Champions Cup final and the semi-finals of the United Rugby Championship. Comparing their current form to the same stage last season, progress is evident. Just like the previous year, they completed the Champions Cup group stage unbeaten. In the United Rugby Championship, they had already recorded 13 wins with four rounds remaining in the regular season, whereas last year they reached that mark only after all 18 rounds. The only defeat for the team this season came recently, on 22 March, in Round 13 of the United Rugby Championship. However, it’s worth noting that the squad had to travel to another continent, playing in South Africa. Moreover, the Bulls secured the win in the fifth minute of added time thanks to a penalty (21:20).
Harlequins
Now compare that to Harlequins: 11 defeats across 24 matches in all three competitions they’ve participated in this season. In their last four fixtures, they managed just one win. They were eliminated from the Premiership Cup in the quarter-finals by eventual champions Bath (28:39), and then suffered another defeat to the same side in the English Premiership last weekend (28:47). Both matches were away from home. Bath can be compared to Leinster in terms of strength — they are currently top of the Premiership, 10 points clear of their nearest challenger and 15 points ahead of third place. Harlequins sit seventh and trail the play-off zone by four points.
Leinster vs Harlequins Prediction
Leinster are expected to progress — they are considered strong contenders for the final. The real question is the margin of victory. In their last 10 away games, Harlequins have lost six times. The median points difference in those defeats was 12, with the narrowest being a 2-point loss and the heaviest a 19-point deficit. Based on that, backing a handicap based on the maximum losing margin looks sensible.
