Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Miami Masters match.
Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic are both enjoying solid form, but the world number one hasn’t looked entirely convincing in his opening matches in Miami. While Djokovic holds a commanding 7-1 lead in their head-to-head, Musetti’s recent performances suggest he’s capable of making this encounter a serious test for the Serbian star.
Lorenzo Musetti
Musetti has come through two stern tests in Miami, both going the distance. After edging past Quentin Halys in three, he rallied from a set down to beat Félix Auger-Aliassime (4:6, 6:2, 6:3). What stood out was his effectiveness on return — he won 40% of points on the Canadian’s serve, despite Auger-Aliassime landing 78% of first serves. The Italian’s variation and court craft make him a tricky opponent, especially if Djokovic allows rallies to drag on.
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has yet to drop a set in Miami but hasn't had it all his own way. Against both Rinky Hijikata (6:0, 7:6) and lucky loser Mariano Navone (6:1, 7:6), the world number one breezed through the opening set only to struggle in the second, needing a tie-break to get the job done. Despite strong serving numbers — 79% first serves in and 82% points won behind them — Novak hasn’t looked sharp closing out sets, particularly in quicker exchanges and when transitioning from defence to attack.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Prediction
Djokovic has had a lucky draw and hasn’t faced any serious opponents yet, but the Serb has struggled even against weaker players. Musetti, on the other hand, has already knocked out Félix Auger-Aliassime, who is ranked in the top 20, and a solid Frenchman, Quentin Halys, and he did it in long, drawn-out matches. The Italian will put up a fight against Novak, so we’re taking the over 20.5 games bet. They could easily exceed that total, even in two sets.
