Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Ligue 1 match.
LOSC Lille
They experienced it from opposite sides. After a hard-fought win over AS Monaco, Lille beat Lorient (7:1), conceding only once. The scoring from Lille has come only in away fixtures so far. On Matchday 1, Stade Brestois 29 equalised late to deny them a win (3:3).
Toulouse
Perhaps it applies to Toulouse as well? Last time out, Paris Saint-Germain beat them (6:3). The last two goals for Toulouse arrived in the 89th and 91st minutes, when PSG had eased off. In xG, it was close to level (2.22-2.62 in xG), yet the final scoreline was emphatic. In the other matches, even Total Over 2.5 did not land: 1:0 against OGC Nice and 2:0 against Stade Brestois 29. Why could the team keep a clean sheet against Stade Brestois 29, while Lille failed to do so?
LOSC Lille vs Toulouse Prediction
We still think it was a one-off across Ligue 1, so a repeat on the same scale feels unlikely. In nine of the previous ten matches at Toulouse’s ground, Total Under 3.5 landed, and the hosts won only twice. For Lille away from home, the equivalent marks are eight of ten and three wins. The result angle can be misleading, while the total looks safer, so under 3 goals is the prudent choice.
