Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
It seems that Luton Town, a club that once fought to stay in the Premier League, are now struggling to do the same in the Championship. A match against a newcomer presents an opportunity to save their spot.
Luton Town
In the seventh round, after two consecutive wins, Luton Town stumbled against what seemed to be manageable Plymouth Argyle, whose squad ranks 19th in the league in terms of value. Despite their €100 million squad, Luton couldn't get the job done, especially falling apart defensively. The opponents had almost the same xG: 1.69-1.67 in favour of Luton, but the game's outcome was decided by accurate shots (6-2 in favour of Plymouth). Another match filled with missed opportunities. Now, their xGDiff (−5.33) is the worst in the Championship.
Oxford United
Oxford United have yet to pick up a single point away from home, although they were just a minute away from doing so against Coventry City, only to be undone by a foolish mistake. At home, they went unbeaten in three matches but faltered against Burnley, so a similar outcome is possible here. They didn't concede but also failed to score for the first time. They hardly had any chances to score: 0.09 xG and three shots (one on target). With similar stats, Bayer 04 Leverkusen managed to score against Bayern Munich, but Oxford United are not Bayer Leverkusen. The team isn't too bad in attack; Burnley are just too strong. Over seven rounds, they have created 8.41 xG, which is close enough to ten goals, which means they are in the positive. The key is creating chances; the goals will follow.
Luton Town vs Oxford United Prediction
Luton Town are facing more issues in attack than in defence. If they had converted their chances, they would be in the upper half of the table. Oxford United, despite limited resources, look like a more cohesive team that knows how to capitalise on their opportunities, so they will at least secure a draw. We’re betting on their win.
