Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
Swansea City's squad is valued at less than half that of Luton Town, yet it is the Welsh club that sits five points and six places ahead in the Championship table. Will payroll play any role in this encounter?
Luton Town
Luton's defence is quite porous, ranking second worst in goals conceded (33). Alongside Coventry City, they have the highest number of goals conceded beyond expected, a staggering 7.74 more than xGA, highlighting defensive frailties. Most of this surge occurred over the last four rounds. Losses to Middlesbrough, Leeds United, and Norwich City have seen Luton concede 12 goals. Only a home win against fellow strugglers Hull City (1:0) offered slight respite and kept them out of the relegation zone.
Swansea City
Swansea City aren't a high-scoring team. Typically, two goals are enough for them to win, as has been the case in five out of six matches. Up until the 16th round, they had been extremely economical in scoring and conceding (11-10), an efficiency almost matched in their last three games (7-7). Most goals conceded came in the match against Leeds United (3:4). Such a scenario is unlikely to repeat with Luton, who average 1.1 goals per game.
Luton Town vs Swansea City Prediction
The match might be high-scoring again, but it's not a certainty. What is clear is that Swansea currently outperform the expensive yet faltering Luton. A victory for the visitors seems likely, regardless of what the bookmakers and previous encounters between these sides suggest—that was a different Luton.
