Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Roland Garros match.
Madison Keys continues her remarkable 2025 season, having already claimed a maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open. Now in Paris, she’s eyeing a deep run at Roland Garros, and reaching the quarter-finals would mark a significant step in her clay-court ambitions. For Hailey Baptiste, simply making it to the second week is a career milestone — but taking on the world No.8 is a major step up in class.
Madison Keys
Keys is in red-hot form: 27 wins from 33 matches in 2025 and a strong 8–3 record on clay. She’s dropped just four sets across those wins and has looked sharp throughout the tournament. After cruising past Katie Boulter and Daria Saville in straight sets, she rallied past Sofia Kenin in a gritty three-setter (4–6, 6–3, 7–5), showcasing both mental toughness and physical endurance. She’s also dominated their previous meetings, including a straightforward win on Charleston clay in 2023.
Hailey Baptiste
Baptiste is known for her competitive style of play, but her overall clay-court record is not particularly strong. This season, she has a record of 11 wins and 16 losses, with three of those losses coming against top-20 players. Roland Garros marked the first time this season that the American player reached the fourth round of a clay-court tournament. Even there, Baptiste’s first serve was not a strength, averaging only a 58% success rate, and she also didn’t face any formidable opponents in Paris. Haddad Maia (No. 23) was not playing at her best and lost in part because of her low first-serve percentage, while Hibino Nao (No. 196) and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (No. 68) aren’t even ranked in the top 50.
Madison Keys vs Hailey Baptiste Prediction
Keys leads their head-to-head 2-0, including a dominant win on clay, and overall looks several levels above her opponent. Baptiste’s effort can’t be faulted, but the quality of opposition she’s faced doesn’t compare to what Keys brings. Madison’s firepower and composure under pressure should prove decisive.
