Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
For four consecutive seasons, Manchester City and Real Madrid have met in the Champions League knockout stages, turning this fixture into a modern European classic. This year, the two giants cross paths unusually early, at the last-16 stage, with the first leg at the Etihad expected to follow Manchester City’s blueprint—especially given Real Madrid’s extensive squad issues.
Manchester City
After a humiliating defeat to Arsenal (1:5), Manchester City fielded a rotated side in a tense FA Cup tie against Leyton Orient (2:1). Pep Guardiola relied on his substitutes to provide the decisive goals, as his team amassed 3.58 xG from 24 shots. In the Champions League, Manchester City have been prolific at home, scoring 11 goals in four matches—only Borussia Dortmund (13), Bayern Munich, and Barcelona (both 14) have been more clinical on their own turf.
Real Madrid
On Saturday, Real Madrid managed to withstand Atlético Madrid’s pressure at the Bernabéu (1:1), despite conceding 1.54 xGA, keeping hold of their La Liga lead. However, they suffered another defensive blow with Lucas Vázquez’s injury, forcing Carlo Ancelotti to consider Eduardo Camavinga and Ferland Mendy in unnatural roles. With David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger, Daniel Carvajal, and Éder Militão all sidelined, Real Madrid’s defence looks vulnerable, meaning they will likely prioritise attack. This aligns with their approach in the group stage, where six of their matches produced over 2.5 goals.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction
Since April 2022, Manchester City and Real Madrid have faced off six times, with four of those matches featuring at least three goals. Given both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, an open and high-scoring affair at the Etihad looks inevitable.
