Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Europa League match.
Like Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United have shifted their focus to European competition towards the end of the season, leaving English Premier League fixtures largely in the hands of their second-string squad. In Bilbao, Manchester United were clearly the superior side against Athletic Bilbao (3:0), and back at Old Trafford, Ruben Amorim will be aiming to give the Spanish side no chance of a comeback.
Manchester United
Since the beginning of March, Manchester United have seen the Total Under 2.5 Goals bet land in four of their six home games. Against Wolverhampton Wanderers (0:1) in Matchweek 33 of the English Premier League, the team conceded late, having allowed just 0.25 xGA and two shots on target over the full 90 minutes. It is evident that in Bilbao, Manchester United benefited from an early red card shown to Dani Vivian, which enabled them to dominate the match with a punishing possession statistic of 73% to 27%.
Athletic Bilbao
During the first leg of the semi-finals, Athletic Bilbao attempted to adapt quickly, but the substitutions of Óscar de Marcos and Álex Berenguer had little effect. Over the entire match, the Spanish side managed only three shots on target and created two scoring chances—Nico Williams and Iñaki Williams were comfortably neutralised by opponents who did not even exert themselves much while playing with a man advantage. On Sunday, in the derby against Real Sociedad (0:0), the squad managed only 0.17 xG, suggesting that the heavy defeat to Manchester United had a considerable psychological impact on Athletic Bilbao.
Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction
We suggest backing the Total Under 2.5 Goals for the second leg between Manchester United and Athletic Bilbao. The home side’s group of star players are expected to preserve their lead, while Athletic Bilbao appear to have lost belief in reaching the final.
