Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Rio de Janeiro match.
These two players met last year on clay in Córdoba, where Roberto Carballés Baena secured a three-set victory (3:6, 6:3, 6:3). A year later, both return to South America, but what has changed?
Mariano Navone
The Argentine now ranks higher at No. 46 in the world. He has 355 ranking points to defend in Rio, having reached the final here in 2024. Last season, Navone also made the final in Budapest, showing his clay-court pedigree. However, his form in 2025 has been inconsistent—winning only four of nine matches, with his best result being a quarter-final appearance in Buenos Aires.
Roberto Carballés Baena
The Spaniard has little to defend here, having lost in the first round in Rio last year against Cristian Garín (6:2, 6:7, 3:6). His 2025 season has also been hit-or-miss, splitting five wins and five losses. His best results so far were third-round appearances in Auckland (ATP 250) and the Australian Open.
Mariano Navone vs Carballés Baena Prediction
Both players lack consistency this season, making this a likely close battle. Their previous encounter already went to three sets, and with both needing a confidence-boosting win, we can expect another tight contest.
