Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
The clay-court campaign has started inconsistently for Novak Djokovic. After his early elimination at the hands of Alejandro Tabilo in Monte Carlo, the Serbian is under pressure to rediscover his form. Madrid could provide just the right setting, as Djokovic is a three-time champion here and will be eager to build momentum ahead of Roland Garros.
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi, on the other hand, continues to prove a tough test for even elite-level opponents. This fixture offers him a significant platform to make his mark on the international scene. The Italian is known for his fighting spirit—each of his last five matches has gone to a deciding set. Impressively, he has won at least 12 games in seven of his previous ten matches. Still, his opening-round display against Borna Coric, currently ranked No. 104, left room for improvement: Arnaldi landed only 51% of his first serves and committed four double faults.
Novak Djokovic
Historically, Djokovic has been strong in Madrid, boasting a 30–9 record and a 77% win rate. However, his current form is far from convincing. Since reaching the final in Miami, he suffered a straight-sets defeat (3:6, 4:6) to Alejandro Tabilo in the first round of Monte Carlo. In that match, Djokovic managed to land just 55% of his first serves and created only one break point opportunity. Overall, 2025 has been below expectations for the Serbian, with three first-round eliminations in six tournaments.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Novak Djokovic Prediction
A routine win for Djokovic cannot be taken for granted. His current form is patchy, and he has yet to look comfortable since Miami. Arnaldi has the ability to challenge and is well-placed to secure at least eight games in this contest.
