Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Rome match.
Matteo Arnaldi heads into his home tournament in Rome hoping to capitalise on the momentum from a quarter-final run in Madrid. However, he faces a challenging opponent in Roberto Bautista Agut – a seasoned professional who remains a tough competitor despite his advancing years.
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi arrives in decent spirits following his performance in the Spanish capital, though his season as a whole has lacked consistency. Prior to Madrid, the Italian had registered eight wins against nine defeats, including an underwhelming showing in Monte Carlo, where he suffered a straight-sets loss to Richard Gasquet. Rome has also not been a happy hunting ground for him – he has never gone beyond the second round, falling to Nicolas Jarry in last year's tournament.
Roberto Bautista Agut
Roberto Bautista Agut has managed four wins from fifteen matches this season but continues to show considerable resilience. In nine of those defeats, the 37-year-old still managed to take at least a set. Despite a losing record on clay in 2024, he recently secured a comfortable 6:2, 6:4 victory over Brandon Nakashima, a player known to have challenged even Daniil Medvedev. The Spaniard has twice made it to the Round of 16 in Rome, in 2017 and 2021.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction
Matteo Arnaldi will benefit from home support, but Roberto Bautista Agut’s experience and determination suggest a tightly contested match is on the cards. The Italian has shown a tendency to struggle in physically demanding encounters, while the Spaniard is likely to push the match deep and at least take a set. Even in defeat, he should be able to keep the scoreline competitive.
