Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Matteo Berrettini has hit a strong patch of form and recently knocked out top seed Alexander Zverev, while Lorenzo Musetti has struggled to make an impact this season, frequently bowing out in the opening rounds. Matteo Berrettini has previously beaten his compatriot and looks well-placed to do so again.
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini has been in excellent touch on clay courts, winning 17 of his last 18 matches on the surface and claiming three titles last season. His performance against Alexander Zverev (2:6, 6:3, 7:5) in the previous round highlighted his composure and consistency during extended rallies — a 48-shot exchange was particularly telling. In their last meeting, which came on Lorenzo Musetti's preferred grass surface, Berrettini eased to a straight-sets victory.
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti has been involved in lengthy matches this season: six of his seven contests against top-100 players have gone to three sets. He has a tendency to start slowly — both against Jiri Lehecka (1:6, 7:5, 6:2) and Bu Yunchaokete (4:6, 7:5, 6:3), he only found his rhythm later in the match, dropping the opening set in each. Of particular concern was his serving performance against the Czech opponent, winning just 60% of points behind his first serve. Overall, Musetti has struggled to build momentum early in tournaments, failing to progress beyond the third round in four consecutive events.
Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
Matteo Berrettini comes into this all-Italian match-up with considerably more confidence. His serve has been dependable, and his play from the baseline more varied. Physically, he appears in strong condition. Given Lorenzo Musetti’s sluggish starts and underwhelming form, backing Matteo Berrettini to win looks a sound choice.
