Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the US Open match.
Carlos Alcaraz arrives at the tournament in excellent form after winning Cincinnati, while Mattia Bellucci is battling to stay at ATP Tour level.
Mattia Bellucci
Mattia Bellucci is having a poor season on hard courts with eight wins and ten defeats, and across his last 11 outdoor ATP events he has not won more than one match in a row. At the US Open Bellucci came through the first round with difficulty, defeating Juncheng Shang, who retired in the fourth set after he had taken 15 games off Mattia. This season includes defeats to Martín Landaluce (3:6, 2:6), an opponent ranked outside the top 100 (6:7, 2:6), and Yosuke Watanuki (1:6, 2:6). Their only head-to-head meeting came in 2020, which Bellucci lost (2:6, 1:6).
Carlos Alcaraz
After a confident start against Reilly Opelka (6:4, 7:5, 6:4), Carlos Alcaraz extended his winning run on US hard courts to seven matches. The Cincinnati title has only strengthened his status as the US Open favourite. In the 2025 season Alcaraz has won seven of eight matches against left-handers, dropping only three sets. His percentage of return games won is the highest on the ATP Tour this season at 32.7%, which is a major weapon against opponents without a powerful serve.
Mattia Bellucci vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Mattia Bellucci is too vulnerable on return and does not have the resources to challenge a player of Carlos Alcaraz’s level. The Spaniard should progress with a comfortable win.
