Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the FA Cup match.
The sides are close to each other in the Championship. They have found each other again in the FA Cup: they are separated by just one team and two points. Both are sitting high on the table, in fifth and seventh places, respectively.
Middlesbrough
In the first round, they faced off at Riverside Stadium. On that occasion, the hosts lost to Blackburn Rovers (0:1), who were on fire at the time, marking their second win in a six-match winning streak. In that match, the guests pushed Michael Carrick's team into their usual style of play until the first goal was scored. Indeed, it often happens this way — five out of nine matches after that ended with under 2.5 total goals.
Blackburn Rovers
For the "Rovers," low-scoring matches are where they thrive. They can both win and lose in such encounters. The outcome doesn’t matter as much as the number of goals: under 2.5 total goals occurred in 9 out of their last 10 matches. And how could it be otherwise when John Yost's team concedes less than one goal per game — 23 in 25 matches? This is the sixth-best defensive record in the league. They also score only slightly more, with 28 goals, which puts them toward the bottom of the list (16th-18th place).
Middlesbrough vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction
Considering their negative balance of actual goals to expected goals (xG) — Middlesbrough at -1.73 and Blackburn at -4.77 — it only makes sense to bet on Total Under.
