Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
Middlesbrough dropped their first points of the season last time out but still hold on to top spot in the Championship. Fail to pick up a result here against West Bromwich Albion, though, and they could lose it.
Middlesbrough
Last season Middlesbrough’s biggest weakness was finishing. They underperformed their xG by 9.08 goals, particularly in the first half of the campaign – a spell that arguably cost them a play-off place. This year the story looks brighter, even if not perfect: they’ve actually scored 1.63 more than expected so far, helped by their last outing. They drew 2:2 with Preston North End, creating chances worth 1.52 xG, but Michael Carrick and his staff won’t be happy that the opposition managed 0.75 xG from very little.
West Bromwich Albion
West Bromwich Albion, by contrast, are struggling to make their chances count. Across the season they’re 0.47 goals down on xG, and it was the same story against Derby County last weekend. Despite bossing 68% possession, firing in 18 shots and generating 1.15 xG, they failed to find the net in a 0:1 defeat. Just four of those efforts tested the keeper, and the closest they came was a strike that hit the bar after a fine save. Derby, meanwhile, scored with their very first shot on target in the 84th minute. West Bromwich Albion sit fifth in the table, but their attacking output is modest – just about a goal per game, with four of their five matches ending that way.
Middlesbrough vs West Bromwich Albion Prediction
Middlesbrough, who are averaging close to two goals a game and carry a real threat from free kicks and corners (a third of their goals coming that way), should have enough to edge past a promotion rival. Expect a tight contest, but Middlesbrough’s quality ought to tell – just as it did last season when they did the double over West Bromwich Albion (1:0, 2:0).
