Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
Predicting how Derby County will play is easy: they are extremely principled—it’s either a win or a loss. But with Millwall, things aren’t so simple.
Millwall
One thing is clear with Millwall: they’ve stopped scoring. Again. For two consecutive rounds now. It’s common to see a 0 in the goals scored column after their matches (four out of nine games), and in recent outings, a total under 2.5 has been a frequent occurrence (four out of five times). Is it any wonder? They’ve scored 12 goals with 16.69 xG and sit in 22nd place. However, opponents have slightly exceeded their expected goals: 11 scored with 9.36 xG.
Derby County
When Derby County are on the road, it usually means a loss. When they play at Pride Park, it means a win—or almost always. Norwich City broke this tradition by scoring against the hosts and, more importantly, winning (3:2). Derby County struggle with activity and efficiency away from home. Compare: they’ve scored 9 goals at home with 6.83 xG (13th place), but away, they’ve only created 3.93 xG and scored 3 (20th place).
Millwall vs Derby County Prediction
The match is complicated and contradictory, despite Derby County’s straightforwardness. We don’t see a guaranteed victory for Millwall, but we do expect a low-scoring match with few chances created. Stats from their last four meetings support this: they’ve scored more than two goals only once.
