Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WNBA match.
This matchup features two of the leading contenders in the Western Conference. The Minnesota Lynx currently sit atop the standings with a 19-4 record, while the Phoenix Mercury trail closely behind in second with 15-6. The Minnesota Lynx have been perfect on home court, and this game offers a key chance to widen their advantage by overcoming their nearest challengers. For the visitors, this will be a stern test, particularly following a recent defeat to the Dallas Wings.
Minnesota Lynx
The Minnesota Lynx have maintained a flawless home record this season, winning all 11 of their games on home soil. They have shown consistent control at the Target Center, with seven of their last eight home victories coming by double-digit margins, each by at least 11 points. Their most recent home clash with the Phoenix Mercury ended in a decisive 88:65 win. Statistically, the Minnesota Lynx are among the league’s elite, averaging 84.9 points per game—the second-highest in the WNBA—while conceding just 75.3 points per game, the fewest allowed across the league.
Phoenix Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury have delivered strong performances on the road, winning five of their last six away games. However, they faltered in a key fixture against the Dallas Wings, falling 89:98. The Mercury were out-rebounded 26–38 and managed just a 42% field goal conversion rate. Facing the Minnesota Lynx away is a much tougher assignment, especially given that the Mercury have lost their last nine contests at the Target Center.
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction
The Minnesota Lynx enter this game with a clear home-court edge, the league’s most effective defence, and a dominant record in recent meetings with the Phoenix Mercury. While the Mercury have shown resilience, overcoming the WNBA leaders on their home floor looks unlikely. A victory for the Minnesota Lynx by a margin of at least seven points appears the most probable outcome.
