Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The emphatic 42-point victory (143:101) by the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 had only a modest impact on betting sentiment ahead of the next clash. The Thunder remain the favourites, though the spread has nudged slightly from –2.5 to –3. Bookmakers appear sceptical about the likelihood of a repeat from Anthony Edwards, whose sensational performance lit up the second home game for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Sometimes, everything goes right. In the early hours of Sunday, several crucial elements swung in favour of the Minnesota Timberwolves. First, Anthony Edwards delivered a performance reminiscent of Michael Jordan, outscoring the entire Oklahoma City Thunder single-handedly in the first quarter (16:14). He was guarded by Luguentz Dort, who is unlikely to allow a similar showcase in back-to-back fixtures. Second, the supporting cast—who had struggled away from home—were clinical from beyond the arc, converting 20 of 40 attempts (50%). That statistic stands out as an outlier: the Minnesota Timberwolves average 39% from three-point range at home during the playoffs. It’s also worth remembering they are up against the league’s top-ranked defence.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Defence is likely to be the deciding factor in favour of the Oklahoma City Thunder this time around. The Thunder have shown a remarkable ability to adapt throughout the series, having not lost consecutive games during the current playoff campaign. On average following a defeat, they have conceded just 95.3 points per game. That includes an away fixture against the Denver Nuggets (92:87), in which their hosts were completely shut down: 31.3% shooting from the field, 24.4% from beyond the arc, and a mere 8 points in the opening quarter.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The previous game was effectively settled in the first quarter, when the Oklahoma City Thunder committed five turnovers—a surprising statistic for the most efficient passing team in the playoffs, averaging just 11.3 turnovers per game. The favourites are likely to make tactical adjustments and impose themselves defensively on the Minnesota Timberwolves. That points to two potential betting angles: backing the Oklahoma City Thunder on the spread and Total Under on the home side’s individual points.
