Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
Over the past four Nations League rounds, both Montenegro and Iceland have struggled to compete with Turkey and Wales. Montenegro enter the second leg against the Scandinavians without any points, and while the home crowd in Podgorica will urge their side forward, the opposition pose a significant threat on the counter-attack.
Montenegro
The defeat to Wales (0:1) in the last Nations League round marked Montenegro’s sixth consecutive loss—this unfortunate run began in June's friendlies against Belgium (0:2) and Georgia (1:3). In the Nations League, they have registered just one accurate shot, managing only 0.88 xG and three shots on target over 180 minutes last October. The attack, led by Lecce's forward Nikola Krstović, has notably faltered.
Iceland
Iceland are in the midst of integrating a new generation, with Fiorentina striker Albert Guðmundsson as their emerging star. Interestingly, Guðmundsson has not played in the Nations League and will miss the upcoming match, but in his absence, Real Sociedad's Orri Óskarsson has stepped up impressively (2+0). Against group favourites Turkey (2:4), the Scandinavians created a respectable 1.11 xG. They are adept at pressing the opponent's goal, and they make fewer mistakes against weaker attacking lines.
Montenegro vs Iceland Prediction
In September, Montenegro failed to pose a challenge to Iceland away (0:2, 0.58-1.08 in xG). As the group’s underdogs, they are unlikely to make significant strides at home, so we're backing a double chance for the visitors.
