Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Serie A match.
This high-stakes showdown between Napoli and AC Milan will be pivotal in shaping both sides' ambitions for the final stretch of the season. For Napoli, this could be the last realistic opportunity to reel in Inter Milan, while AC Milan must avoid slipping further away from the European places.
Napoli
Since early February, Napoli have plunged into a worrying attacking slump, managing just one win across seven league fixtures. The absence of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has clearly disrupted their rhythm — without the Georgian winger, Romelu Lukaku has managed just two goals and one assist over the past two months. Still, Napoli remain the league’s most defensively solid side, posting the lowest expected goals against figure (23.95 xGA). At home, three of their last five league games have seen under 2.5 goals.
AC Milan
This current Milan outfit bears little resemblance to the structured side Sergio Conceição was expected to mould. The Portuguese manager has had to abandon some of his defensive caution in favour of taking risks to secure points. However, inefficiency in front of goal continues to plague the Milan side — despite 53.99 xG this season, they’ve only scored 44 times, the second-worst conversion rate in the league. Milan are four points off the top six and simply cannot afford to leave Naples empty-handed.
Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction
Historically, this clash often leans towards a tactical standoff. In 7 of their last 10 head-to-head meetings over the past four years, both teams have not found the net. Given the conservative tendencies of both Antonio Conte and Sergio Conceição, a low-scoring, tense affair seems likely once again.
