Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NFL regular season match.
The New England Patriots (1-4) will attempt to break their four-game losing streak in a home matchup against the Houston Texans (4:1). The Texans, meanwhile, lead the AFC South division and have closed in on the Kansas City Royals in the race for the top conference spot following their crucial victory over the Buffalo Bisons (23-20) last week.
New England Patriots
After five weeks of the new season, the Patriots rank among the league's worst teams across several statistical metrics. Most notably, they offer poor protection for their quarterback during passing plays, standing 30th in protecting the pocket. They'll face a daunting challenge against the Texan's aggressive pass rush, especially since this game marks the NFL debut for their young quarterback Drake Maye.
Houston Texans
The Texan's offence also raises some concerns. They were completely shut down in the second half against the Buffalo Bisons, scoring only six points after the break. Advanced metrics like EPA, which provide a deeper and more contextual assessment of offensive efficiency, indicate that the team from Texas is ranked just 31st in the league on first and second downs. Much of their performance hinges on the heroic efforts of receiver Nico Collins, who is injured and will miss several weeks.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Prediction
Big favourites have not been reliable this season, so it is safer to look at the total. The Patriots are lacking in offence, while the Texans have been scoring more points than their play warrants. We're betting on the total under.
