Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The Indiana Pacers have surged to a 3:1 lead in the series against the New York Knicks, fuelled by a standout Game 4 performance from Tyrese Haliburton, who posted 32 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists, and zero turnovers. While being the higher seed theoretically gives the Knicks an edge — with two of the potential remaining three games set to be played at Madison Square Garden — the on-court reality tells a different story.
New York Knicks
The famed arena has done little to tip the balance in favour of the Knicks during this postseason. The team has won just three of their eight games at home. Of greater concern is that the New York Knicks appear to be running out of effective adjustments to counter the Indiana Pacers’ high-octane offence. The return of Mitchell Robinson to the starting lineup was expected to bring some stability, but his −20 plus-minus in the previous game paints a bleak picture. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson no longer looks like the series’ standout performer. The player truly dictating the tempo is lining up for the other side.
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton acknowledged he underperformed in Game 3, but bounced back in Game 4 with a display worthy of a franchise cornerstone. The Indiana Pacers shot 14-for-22 (63%) and scored 33 points off his assists alone. This squad is constructed to capitalise on Tyrese Haliburton’s skill set, with Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner thriving on both ends of the court. Additionally, the depth of this squad is proving decisive — they are comfortably rotating 10 players deep in the Conference Finals. That depth is forcing the New York Knicks to rely more on the bench.
New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
Despite the Knicks being at home, the spread continues to favour them more than it has the Indiana Pacers on their own floor — a disparity that remains puzzling. The Pacers convincingly covered the spread in both opening games, while the New York Knicks’ sole win came largely due to a rare individual performance from Karl-Anthony Towns. The market still seems to undervalue the visitors’ defensive capabilities while overestimating the offensive output of the New York Knicks — making the underdog a compelling proposition.
