Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the English Premiership rugby match.
Newcastle Falcons have made significantly more changes to their squad compared to Bristol Bears. Understandably, they don't want to finish last for the third time. Can the unequivocal underdogs start the season positively thanks to their home advantage?
Newcastle Falcons
Newcastle Falcons have undergone extensive changes, yet manager Steve Diamond remains in charge. He took over the team in January to lift them from the bottom, where they've languished for four seasons. The club said goodbye to 10 players and welcomed nine new ones. Despite finishing last again last season, their situation only worsened: a dreadful point difference (–378), only five bonus points, and no wins. It's a wonder they haven't been relegated yet, as there's no alternative club to fill their spot in the Premiership currently. Last season saw the losses of Wasps and Worcester Warriors.
Bristol Bears
Bristol Bears improved their performance last season, climbing from ninth to fifth place. However, they still missed the playoffs, last appearing there in 2021. Patrick Lam remains the head coach, now entering his seventh season in Bristol, with his contract extending for another four years. The most significant loss for them is tighthead prop Kyle Sinckler, who transferred to the financially abundant Toulon. They also lost back row forward Magnus Bradbury (Edinburgh Rugby), fly-half Callum Sheedy, and another back-rower Dan Thomas (both to Cardiff Blues). To compensate for their back-row losses, they acquired Viliame Mata from Edinburgh and Fiji's national team and hooker Lovjoy Chawatama from Harlequins.
Newcastle Falcons vs Bristol Bears Prediction
Bristol Bears are likely to win, but the real question is by how much. A straightforward win doesn't offer much value. For a more worthwhile bet, we'd recommend backing the Bears to win with a handicap, but not by an excessively large margin. Last season, they thrashed the Falcons at home (85:14), but the score was only 21:13 in their favour in Newcastle.
