Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Premier League match.
On Saturday at St James' Park, Newcastle United (7th) face Brighton (6th) in a clash between table neighbours and European hopefuls. They delivered vastly different performances in the last round—will defence or attack triumph this time?
Newcastle United
Newcastle United have a balanced situation with both their attack and defence. They're highly active up front, generating at least 1.5 xG in six out of seven rounds, but they've only scored twice in two of those matches. Opponents also haven't surpassed three goals in games against them (conceding 7 with 10.39 xGA). This led to a 0:0 stalemate in the round before the break, where combined with Everton, the teams created 2.72 xG.
Brighton
Brighton, on the other hand, have been involved in goal-fests for the past four matches, including the League Cup: neither side scores less than two goals. These shootouts earned Brighton four points and advancement to the League Cup's fourth round. They have no issues with finishing, having scored more (13 goals) than their expected (10.75 xG). It's the opponents who squander chances—only Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur have exceeded their expected goals tally. This mirrors Newcastle's situation.
Newcastle United vs Brighton Prediction
Betting on the total under such contrasting scoring conditions is a risky move. It's hard to predict which side will impose their style. Last season, they displayed both over (3:1 for Brighton at home) and under (1:1 at Newcastle) scoring outcomes in their fixtures, with Brighton coming out ahead. Expect that trend to continue in the upcoming game.
