Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Women’s Euro match.
The opening knockout round of the Women’s Euro features a clash between Norway and Italy. Norway emerged from Group A as leaders with a perfect record, while Italy only just scraped through Group B. Despite that, it is Italy who come into this tie as favourites — but is that justified?
Norway (women)
The FIFA rankings show little to separate the two sides: Italy are currently 13th, while Norway are just behind in 16th. However, rankings alone rarely tell the full story. Norway may not have faced the toughest opposition in the group stage, but they still managed to win all three matches — albeit by slim margins. Notably, they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those games, with both teams scoring and Total Over 1.5 landing in every fixture. Does Italy’s group stage form show similar trends?
Italy (women)
Italy managed only three goals in the group stage, compared to Norway’s tally of eight. However, the both teams to score market landed in two of Italy’s three matches — a 1:1 draw with Portugal and a 1:3 loss to Spain. Their only win came against Belgium, and even that was a narrow 1:0 result. It's surprising, then, that they’re considered the frontrunners here.
Norway (women) vs Italy (women) Prediction
Looking at recent head-to-heads, the teams have faced off three times in the 2020s. Two of those encounters ended in draws (0:0 and 1:1), while the earliest, during the 2022 Algarve Cup, saw Italy edge a 2:1 victory. In their latest outing, Norway were reduced to ten players against Iceland after Marit Lund, a key member of the defence, was sent off. Her suspension could give Italy more opportunities in front of goal.
