Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Nuno Borges has already logged several matches on clay this season and is showing solid form. In contrast, Pablo Carreño Busta is still searching for his previous level after injuries and a long layoff. Even with home court advantage and crowd support, the Spaniard appears to have very little chance.
Nuno Borges
Nuno Borges has made a confident start to the clay swing, winning three of his five matches across Marrakesh and Monte Carlo. Notably, in Monaco, Borges defeated world No. 9 Holger Rune, who had only recently beaten Carlos Alcaraz on clay in Barcelona en route to taking the title. Over his last five matches, Borges has delivered 16 aces and averaged 28 winners per match.
Pablo Carreño Busta
Pablo Carreño Busta, once ranked as high as world No. 10, has now slipped to 96th in the ATP rankings. He has lost five recent clay-court matches against top-50 opponents, and his current level remains uncertain. He has dropped down to the Challenger circuit, where he has managed to beat players outside the top 100—claiming two titles in Tenerife—but his outings at higher-level tournaments have been underwhelming. At Indian Wells, he came through qualifying but lost in the opening round to world No. 52 Quentin Halys, and a similar story unfolded in Barcelona, where he was beaten in straight sets by Arthur Fils.
Nuno Borges vs Pablo Carreño Busta Prediction
Nuno Borges looks physically sharp, consistent, and more equipped for long rallies compared to a weary Pablo Carreño Busta. In extended baseline exchanges, the Portuguese player should have the edge with his movement and rhythm. Nuno Borges is expected to handle the 33-year-old Spaniard with relative ease.
