Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets concluded their regular season encounters with a high-scoring showdown, which ended in a 140:127 win for the Nuggets. As they now face off in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, the Thunder enter the tie with a considerable rest advantage.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Impressively, the Thunder finished their previous series on 26 April, while the Nuggets only wrapped up theirs this past weekend. This gives the hosts a notable advantage in terms of rest and recovery. The youthful and energetic squad features a tenacious defensive setup and carries minimal injury concerns into this matchup. Defensive anchors Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are both fit and available, while Lu Dort — widely recognised as one of the top perimeter defenders in the league — is also set to play a key role. Although Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray had standout performances in that one regular season encounter, Jamal Murray failed to exceed 17 points in any of the other meetings this season.
Denver Nuggets
Further compounding the challenge is the significant burden placed on the key players of the Nuggets during their taxing seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers (4:3). Four starters averaged over 39 minutes per game, with Nikola Jokić on the floor for an average of 42.1 minutes — virtually ever-present. He not only leads the team on the court but often takes on a leadership role akin to a coach. The Oklahoma City Thunder also hold a clear edge in terms of tactical planning and bench management heading into this matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction
Historically, teams that have played a Game 7 within the previous three days and then faced a home favourite coming off four or more days of rest have lost 82.6% of those contests, while also failing to cover the spread in 69.5% of cases (16 out of 23 games). When the Denver Nuggets have fallen to the Oklahoma City Thunder, offensive production has typically been poor — managing just 87 and 103 points in those games. As such, the smart play here is to back both a spread win for the hosts and a Total Under on the Denver Nuggets’ individual points tally.
