Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the NBA match.
The NBA Finals are approaching a decisive moment. With the series tied at 2:2 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers, the upcoming clash at the Paycom Center is set to play a crucial role. Historically, teams that win Game 5 in a 2:2 series have gone on to claim the championship 74.2% of the time.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite both teams being youthful and relying on deep rotations, the series has been notably low-scoring — three of the four games have finished below the projected total, even as that line has been gradually lowered with each contest. Given a disciplined Oklahoma City Thunder defence, this pattern is unsurprising. However, the Thunder have struggled to assert themselves offensively. Game 4 highlighted this, with a poor 3-for-17 performance from beyond the arc and a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (11 assists to 13 turnovers). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had to rely on difficult, contested shots late in the game to secure the win.
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers’ up-tempo approach has produced limited results, and their half-court offence lacks reliable options. In Game 4, relentless defensive pressure from the Oklahoma City Thunder wore down the Indiana Pacers, leaving them with little left in the tank for the fourth quarter: they shot 5-for-18 from the field (27.8%), went 0-for-8 from three-point range, and experienced a scoring drought just as their opponents began to claw back control. Pascal Siakam was particularly quiet, attempting just one shot from the field in the closing stretch — part of an ongoing trend of second-half fadeouts.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers have done well to cancel out each other’s key strengths. It’s a telling sign that lesser-heralded players like Alex Caruso are stepping up in pivotal moments — individuals who often go unnoticed. Even when playing at home, the Indiana Pacers attempted 83% of their fourth-quarter shots under significant defensive pressure, so expecting a reversal of fortunes on the road against the league’s top home team seems optimistic. With the stakes rising and nerves tightening, another low-scoring encounter appears likely. We'll back a Total Under.
