Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
Ajax were outclassed on home soil in their opening fixture against Inter Milan (0:2). Now they face an even sterner test at the Stade Vélodrome, one of the most hostile arenas in Europe, against a Marseille side in resurgent form.
Olympique de Marseille
After a shaky August, where two defeats and just one win raised questions, Marseille have steadied themselves in September. Their only setback came at the Santiago Bernabéu, where even the heroics of goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli (13 saves against 3.74 xG from Real Madrid) couldn’t prevent a narrow 1:2 defeat. Interestingly, Rulli once wore Ajax colours, though only briefly — just seven Eredivisie appearances and no European action. Back in Ligue 1, he was decisive in Marseille’s last two outings, keeping Paris Saint-Germain at bay in a famous 1:0 win before helping secure a 2:1 victory over a dangerous Strasbourg.
Ajax
The Dutch giants are struggling to impose themselves both domestically and in Europe. A 0:2 defeat to Inter Milan leaves them languishing in 30th place in the overall Champions League table, and though unbeaten in the Eredivisie, three draws in seven matches mean they sit third behind Feyenoord Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven. Had Ajax beaten PSV Eindhoven in round six (2:2), they’d be second, but inconsistency remains an issue.
Olympique de Marseille vs Ajax Prediction
Winning against Marseille at the Stade Vélodrome is a nearly impossible task. Over the last seven Ligue 1 matches, no visiting team has managed to earn a single point, with six of those seven opponents conceding at least three goals. The situation in European competitions is almost identical. Since the summer of 2023, across eight home games, Marseille have recorded six wins and two draws, with the over 2.5 goals bet landing in six of them. Therefore, our prediction is a win for the French club and a high-scoring game.
