Adam Williams presents his prediction for the NHL match.
The 'Battle of Ontario' has been a one-sided affair so far. The Toronto Maple Leafs opened the series with a commanding 6:2 victory, converting three power play chances, and followed that up with a gritty win in Game 2. However, the series now shifts to home ice for the Ottawa Senators, where they haven’t lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs since 2023, offering them a genuine opportunity to tilt the balance.
Ottawa Senators
As expected heading into the playoffs, the Senators have held their ground against the Toronto Maple Leafs in even-strength situations. Across the two games on the road, they were far more aggressive in generating slot shots (55–28) and slightly edged the opposition in high-danger scoring opportunities (15–13). Game 2 also saw improved discipline, with only two penalties committed—a sign that special teams may not be the deciding factor in this matchup. It's also worth highlighting that the Senators have won six of the last seven meetings between the two sides over the past two seasons.
Toronto Maple Leafs
With the Toronto Maple Leafs, there’s always a risk of them being their own worst enemy. Regardless of coaching changes or the presence of experienced playoff campaigners, the Maple Leafs have a tendency to invite unnecessary pressure. Many of their flaws during 5 on 5 play are masked by goaltender Anthony Stolarz, while their penalty kill has been underwhelming, operating at just 72.5% efficiency since the Four Nations Tournament.
Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction
Supporters of the Ottawa Senators have waited years for a return to playoff hockey, and they are expected to create a raucous home atmosphere on Friday night. Two games into the series, the team does not look outmatched: they are holding their own at even strength and showing greater composure. With a Georges Vezina-level goaltender like Linus Ullmark, they have the tools to steal a game or more. Backing the home team appears to be a smart move.
