Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
Swansea City are slightly favoured to win, even though the match will be played away. Will Oxford United really suffer their first home defeat? Has their loss to Sunderland affected them that much?
Oxford United
Oxford United were outplayed in every aspect by Sunderland in the previous round (0:2), but firstly, that was an away match, and secondly, the hosts lead the Championship for good reason—they have the best form over the last five rounds and boast a top scorer in Wilson Isidor, who also netted against Oxford United. At their own stadium, Oxford United are poised to stop any challenger. Although their early run of consecutive victories has ended, they continue to collect points—three draws in their recent home fixtures, including against top teams: Burnley and West Bromwich Albion.
Swansea City
The Welsh side struggle to find the net on the road. They managed to score, in fact twice, only against Coventry City (2:1), but otherwise it's been all zeros after trips outside Wales. They have managed one draw, four losses, and a 0:4 scoreline in other away matches. It’s hardly surprising given they are among the lowest in away shots (8.8, ranking 21st) and shots on target (1.7). They have scored fewer actual goals than they should—in theory (2 goals from 4.79 xG). It seems as if half their strength is left behind at Liberty Stadium.
Oxford United vs Swansea City Prediction
The clubs have little history against each other. Their only encounters were a pre-season friendly last year (1:0 to Oxford United) and a League Cup match the year before last (2:2, Oxford United won 5:3 on penalties). Even this small statistical sample, combined with this season's home form, is enough to say Oxford United will not be defeated, and their unbeaten home run will continue.
