Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League Qualifying match.
Crvena Zvezda’s ambitious summer transfer campaign could turn into a disaster if they fail to get past Pafos in Champions League qualifying. The Cypriot side stunned Belgrade with a 2:1 first-leg victory, meaning the Serbian champions travel for the return leg with doubled motivation.
Pafos
This is already the third consecutive round in which Pafos have drawn elite opposition. They scraped through against Maccabi Tel Aviv (2:1 on aggregate) and then shocked Dynamo Kyiv (3:0). In Belgrade, Pafos stormed into a two-goal lead early in the second half but nearly let it slip. The team finished with 1.85 xG, scoring twice from just three shots on target — a level of efficiency that may be hard to repeat in the return leg.
Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda, by contrast, wasted a host of chances in the first leg. They created 2.38 xG, firing 26 shots to 14, but came away with nothing more than a single strike. The absence of star forward Peter Olayinka wasn’t decisive — Bruno Duarte was lively, even if he missed a penalty, reacting well on the rebound and remaining a constant threat. Until that slip-up, Crvena Zvezda had won seven of their opening eight matches this season. Away days in Europe have also gone smoothly: 1:0 at Lincoln Red Imps and 3:1 at Lech Poznań earlier in qualifying.
Pafos vs Crvena Zvezda Prediction
It is difficult to see Pafos overperforming at this level for a third straight tie. Crvena Zvezda’s experience and quality should shine through, and the Serbians won’t falter when it matters most.
