Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
The first leg between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal at the Emirates last Tuesday (1:0) offered few clear-cut chances. Arsenal had several opportunities to equalise but were repeatedly denied – either by Gianluigi Donnarumma’s saves or VAR decisions disallowing goals.
Paris Saint-Germain
Across the 90 minutes in London, Paris Saint-Germain registered only four shots on target – all in the first half – and finished with a total of just 0.31 xG. With Arsenal missing key midfielders, the French side comfortably dictated possession and restricted the visitors’ attacking threat. Before their 3:1 loss to OGC Nice, Paris Saint-Germain had conceded only seven goals in their previous nine home fixtures – a continuation of that defensive solidity could be enough to see them through to the final.
Arsenal
Even with Thomas Partey returning from suspension, Arsenal’s attacking prospects remain limited. Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli struggled under pressure in the first leg, and Mikel Arteta waited until the final minutes to introduce Ben White and Ethan Nwaneri. In Saturday’s English Premier League defeat to AFC Bournemouth (1:2), the team produced only four shots on target and recorded 1.43 xG – a result that now puts their second-place standings under serious threat, with Manchester City closing the gap.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal Prediction
It’s also worth noting that during the Champions League group stage, Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal failed to reach Total Over 2.5 goals (0:2). Back in Paris, the hosts are expected to nullify their opponent’s threat from free kicks and corners, while Arsenal appear unlikely to take control of the match.
