Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Ligue 1 match.
Ousmane Dembélé is likely to take to the Parc des Princes pitch not in a Paris Saint-Germain shirt but in a sharp suit, delighting the crowd with his freshly-won Ballon d’Or. The Frenchman remains injured. Ten minutes after the ceremony, his team will start to test Auxerre.
Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain have generated relatively few potential chances (7.96 xG, only ninth in the division), yet they sit third for goals scored (10). The biggest driver of that gap came away at Toulouse (6:3): six goals from just 2.62 xG. When the opponents have a far more reliable goalkeeper, such as Gerónimo Rulli for Olympique de Marseille, it ends in defeat (0:1), which was their first of this season. That outing also came with poor chance quality (0.67 xG). Paris Saint-Germain also recorded a 1:0 away victory at Nantes, making it another match that finished with under 2.5 goals.
Auxerre
In Round 5, Auxerre themselves won a low-scoring game despite the opponent’s pressure: Toulouse posted 2.33 xG but lost (1:0). The most recent away trip was to similarly low-scoring Nantes (0:1). The visitors tend to be tight for goals on the road: half of their previous eight away matches finished with the under 2.5 goals. However, Paris Saint-Germain are a special case. Their last meeting at Parc des Princes ended in a home win (3:1). None of those eight visitors' matches exceeded four goals.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Auxerre Prediction
We are backing under 4.5 goals and a Paris Saint-Germain win, with the hosts eager to erase the sting of that Le Classique defeat.
