Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
After their second consecutive victory, Luton Town have finally risen to mid-table. Plymouth Argyle, on the other hand, are still struggling to stay above the relegation zone. For both clubs, this match is an opportunity to avoid slipping down.
Plymouth Argyle
Following an unexpected, albeit home, win over league leaders Sunderland (3:2), the team predictably fell to West Bromwich Albion away (0:1), who rose to the top spot after that match. Playing at home has been slightly easier for the team than away, though this is generally a common occurrence. This season, at Home Park, Plymouth Argyle have played four matches with two wins, a draw, and a loss (0:1 to Stoke City). In that game, the number of shots was identical (15-15 overall and 7-7 on target), but the quality of chances for the home side was lacking (0.77-1.60 xG). Another match with the same score was against West Bromwich Albion. Surprisingly, the number of shots was again equal (17 (4)), and once again, the team had poor execution (0.78-2.33 xG). Conclusion: they can easily create enough chances to score; it's high time they convert, as they regularly generate opportunities. However, they are bound to concede as well.
Luton Town
Although Luton Town are considered favourites by bookmakers for this match, there isn't strong confidence in their victory. Can the team extend their winning streak to three games? Well, let's see. In the two recent victories, the team scored one more goal than their opponents. The quality of chances created, as reflected in their xG, hasn't shown a clear correlation. Against Millwall, they fell short by almost half in xG (0.58-0.97), but against Sheffield Wednesday (2:1), they exceeded by almost 2.5 times (2.12-0.87), though one goal was from a penalty. However, it's evident that opponents can easily create enough chances to score one goal against them.
Plymouth Argyle vs Luton Town Prediction
Given Luton Town's weak defence, having conceded in five out of seven matches this season, Plymouth Argyle's high number of shots regardless of the opponent, yet their defensive frailties (not a single clean sheet), we see the both teams to score bet as likely to pass.
